
Last night was one of the greatest nights in the history of the American League, and maybe baseball itself. Evan Longoria was hitting a walk-off homer to push the Tampa Bay Rays into the playoffs … and at almost the exact same moment, Robert Andino of the Baltimore Orioles was singling to left to pull the Boston Red Sox out.
One of the reasons baseball and the moments that make it great are so engaging is that there’s a stat for literally everything; if you look hard enough, you could probably find a website listing caught-stealing ratios explaining how the amount of drug vials in Tim Raines’ pockets effected his baserunning.
What you see on the left is a pair of amazing charts from Sports Club Stats — the one at the top is titled “Tampa Bay Rays Chance Will Make Playoffs”. The one on the bottom, “Boston Red Sox Chance Will Make Playoffs”. They become even more fun when you play with the interactive versions, which allow you to hover over each little circle and find out what was going on and why it’s so high or low on the chart. Compare and contrast them for yourself:
Boston Red Sox Chance Will Make Playoffs
Tampa Bay Rays Chance Will Make Playoffs
Wonderful. I’m guessing Baltimore’s has been a straight line tracing the bottom since 1997.
[h/t Matt Ufford]


There was one point for the Red Sox they were a 99.85% chance of making the playoffs. UGH.
I’ve been watching baseball for 30 years and last night was the most “wow, what the fuck just happened” night of baseball ever.
Those graphs are great. Also, the WPA charts over at fangraphs.com from last nights games are pretty fun to look at.
Seriously, I will go into a fit a rage the next time someone says baseball is boring.
@uconngary7: It actually gets all the way up to 99.93% at one point.
What a glorious day to be a Mets fan. And by “glorious” I mean at least people we dislike are have crapped their beds worse than our worst was.
I don’t see anything on the left.