The NFL rumor-mongering/cell phone whoring Pro Football Talk has stopped just short of reporting that Georgia quarterback Matt Stafford will be the first overall pick in the NFL Draft on April 25th.

Although as to the other teams there’s no strategic reason to conceal the identity of the player they plan to draft since the Lions get the first pick, there’s a separate shell game as it relates to negotiating a contract.

Given that Michigan tackle Jake Long [last year' first overall pick] received $30 million guaranteed last year on a five-year deal, a quarterback taken in the first overall slot will likely want $35 million guaranteed on a five-year contract — and more than $40 million guaranteed on a six-year deal.

Stafford is nowhere near a sure thing in a draft that’s lacking the big names of a year ago, but Detroit’s ineptitude under center reached legendary heights last season, personified by Dan Orlovsky’s trot out of the endzone at home against Minnesota. But even with guys like Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco taking their teams to the playoffs in their repestive rookie seasons, Stafford almost catches a break in the Lions’ being so terrible. It’s not ideal…but $35 million guaranteed makes up for some of that.